105 Markets Are Falling, But the Sky Is Not - The Truth About Home Prices in 2025
Here’s what most people are missing about this housing market:
Yes, some cities are seeing price drops — but that doesn’t mean we’re in a free fall. It means the market is finally normalizing.
According to a new analysis by Lance Lambert at ResiClub, just 105 of the nation’s 300 largest metro housing markets saw home prices decline year-over-year as of September 2025. That’s actually down from a peak of 110 earlier this summer. Translation: even though it feels like the market’s cooling, things are stabilizing, not collapsing.
The National Snapshot: Barely a Blip on the Radar
Nationally, home prices rose +0.01% year-over-year between September 2024 and September 2025, based on the Zillow Home Value Index.
That’s basically flat — a big slowdown from last year’s +2.4% gain, but still positive.
This year started rougher: the number of cities with falling prices jumped month after month as higher interest rates and more listings hit the market.
Here’s how it played out:
January: 31 markets down
March: 60 markets down
June: 110 markets down (the peak)
September: back down to 105
That steadying trend matters — it shows that while buyer leverage improved in some places, the worst of the correction may already be behind us.
Where the Market Is Cooling Fastest
So, who’s taking the biggest hits?
Not surprisingly — the same Sun Belt boomtowns that caught fire during the pandemic are now cooling off.
Markets in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado lead the pack in price declines, especially in areas where inventory has shot past pre-2019 levels.
Builders in those regions have been cutting deals to move new homes — and that’s pulling some demand away from the resale market.
The top five biggest year-over-year drops:
Punta Gorda, FL (-12.4%)
Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL (-10%)
North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton, FL (-8.8%)
Naples–Marco Island, FL (-7.6%)
Maui, HI (-6.4%)
Notice the pattern? Warm climates and pandemic darlings — the same places where home values skyrocketed far beyond local incomes when everyone was chasing more space and sunshine.
Why the Sun Belt’s Cooling Off
The shift isn’t random. It’s the hangover from the Pandemic Housing Boom.
When rates spiked and migration slowed, those high-flying prices had nowhere to go but down.
In markets like Tampa and Austin, buyers are pushing back, builders are offering incentives, and affordability is finally forcing a reality check.
That doesn’t mean a crash — it means gravity is doing what it does best.
Meanwhile, the Midwest and Northeast — areas that didn’t overheat as much — are still seeing gains. Inventory there remains below pre-pandemic levels, and local buyers are keeping prices afloat.
A Market Divided: 195 Winners, 105 Losers
Here’s the real headline most people miss:
While 105 markets are seeing year-over-year declines, 195 are still seeing price increases.
That means two-thirds of the country is holding strong or still appreciating — just not at the dizzying pace of 2021–2022.
Many of those growth markets are in the Midwest and Northeast — places like Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo — where affordability still makes sense and job growth has quietly improved.
It’s not the “one-size-fits-all” market people remember. Real estate right now is hyper-local, which means your zip code’s story may look nothing like your friend’s across the country.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Maryland
For Maryland — and specifically here in Baltimore County and Harford County — this type of national data is good news.
We’re not seeing the steep price slides happening down south. Our inventory levels remain historically tight, and demand continues to hold steady.
Sure, buyers have more breathing room than they did in 2021, but sellers still benefit from limited competition.
Here’s the local truth:
If your home is clean, priced right, and marketed professionally — it still sells fast.
If you’re buying, you might not get the fire-sale deal you dreamed of, but you’ll have options and leverage.
And if you’re waiting for a crash? You’ll probably be waiting a while.
Dan’s Take
Markets like Florida and Texas are cooling because they needed to.
They grew too fast, too far, and now they’re correcting to something sustainable.
But for the rest of the country — especially balanced markets like ours — this is a return to normal, not a sign of trouble.
Think of it like pro wrestling: sometimes the champ needs to take a few hits to make the comeback more believable. The market’s no different — a little bruising keeps the story real.
Final Thoughts
The housing market of 2025 isn’t hot or cold — it’s finally human again.
Sellers can’t price with blind confidence, and buyers can’t wait forever hoping for a crash.
If you’re thinking of making a move this fall, get advice that’s based on your local market, not national headlines.
The story in Maryland is steady, and that’s a win in my book.
Want to talk strategy or get a free home valuation?
Call or text me anytime — I’ll shoot straight with you about what’s smart right now.
Source: “Number of Major Housing Markets with Falling Home Prices Drops to 105—Down from This Year’s Peak of 110” by Lance Lambert, ResiClub Analytics, October 2025.
www.ResiClubAnalytics.com
